Successful banker’s blog
The world and Ukraine are now experiencing not only a global crisis, but also a virus, which has not yet been coped by more than one country and which only helped the world crisis to begin earlier, although talk about the crisis has been going on for a long time and many people assumed that it would happen in the fall of 2020. Many billionaires and world famous investors, like many heads of state, initially said that the crisis would be weaker than in 2008, but in less than a month they changed their words and said that the effect would be even stronger.
First it started with China, then the virus spread all over the world, western medicine was simply not ready, let alone destroyed our medicine. At first, many saw it as some kind of misunderstanding until people started dying, then dozens and then hundreds in just one country. China, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, the USA, etc. have experienced and are experiencing horror. Although there are those who think it is just a redistribution of the world’s resources, and that everything is done on purpose, and the death rate is not higher than that of other diseases such as colds, malaria, cancer and bad habits like smoking, alcoholism, drugs and suicide, etc. Whether that’s true, we’ll know after…
After the virus, the long-awaited oil war began, the Saudits decided to put Russia in its place. As a result, the prices fell by almost 3 times. This is a shock for many countries, for which the virus has also created even more problems. Prices have fallen to a minimum of 90s. Russia held on, but even their stress test was not ready for this.
The world began to close, each country began to close the border, to close air and car traffic. Then quarantine and in some countries the state of emergency or situation. As a result, the entire small business, almost half of the medium business and even some large businesses have closed all over the world, and even the rest are not fully operational.
This also happened in Ukraine, at first on the danger of the crisis, as investors, or rather speculators, began to withdraw their money around the world. Importers and other businesses, as well as bankers, began to re-insure themselves and left in the dollar. All bought up to the full, but the Quarantine has been extended until April 24 and toughened the conditions, as well as the prerequisites for which will be extended still remain. As a result of sales now on import almost no, except for food products. As a result, the demand for currency has exhausted by the end of March and the NBU bay more than 2 billion dollars.
the business is worth it? What to buy for, when many people were sent at their own expense, who was reduced by 2/3 of WP or even reduced. Businessmen also will not buy a dollar, which they have bought in a hurry. Hryvnia is also needed in some way, even to pay taxes or current affairs. As a result, the NBU has only started buying foreign currency, and has been setting records for the last two working days.
We have successfully passed the Laws for the IMF, although in fact they do not work, it is just a paper that costs nothing. They can be changed 10 times more or some Court will say that they are illegal. The updated budget has never been adopted. The quarantine forced people to sit at home for the most part, the children’s and sports grounds are empty. You think of American movies about “viruses” and “zombies.”
But if in many developed countries began a powerful support and turned on the printing press, we have the opposite, we have Grivna – it’s an idol, and it can surprise – a week strengthening by 1 hryvnia and the preconditions for what will strengthen. It is necessary to let investors go at a good rate, understanding that the average rate for the budget of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine wants the rate 29.5. The dilemma is, when will we catch up with the average rate or repeat it in 2019, when the industry will die completely taking into account the global crisis? Will agrarians and metallurgists pull out? IT is not going to move anywhere right now. Although the option to take from the IMF to eat, it seems that Ukraine will return to its development, to be more precise, we remain a developing country on which to earn money. The change of the Government in March, then in less than a month the change of the main ministers, shows the weakness of the Government to govern the country, although recently there have been words about 40% growth in 5 years, a young team of reformers, etc. Professionals are over, and people from Poroshenko started to be called to the Zelensky team. 95 quarter is not rubber. It’s a joke…
In China, Italy, Spain the number of deaths from the virus started to fall, it’s positive. But the situation itself will be delayed, it can easily carry over into the summer. And in itself, the economy and the supply chain will still be recovering for a long time.
Back to Grivna, why did we get back on track so quickly? Let me remind you that we had a crisis in 2014-2016. which was not in the world, the rate dropped 3-3.5 times, plus the banking system also survived all this, the dumps went, a lot of problems. That is why now in 1 month we have almost nothing in the bank. And it has made us stronger and more prepared. Except people are not ready, and many of us live for 1-30 days. And colossal problems started from day one.
The NBU is well on track, we should note this. It has sold 27.50-28.30 and now it is buying at a rate below 100 + million per day. What’s next, everyone asks for